Foreign media the seven factors affecting food security in China is hoarding soybean

 2011   2   15   continuing drought in pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia grassland Tuoketuo County drought exposed Martinez (February 15 photo.) Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Lingshe

United States,
Soaring food prices sparked fears of global food shortages. FAO has recently announced a record high food prices, the World Bank said rising food prices because of the additional population of starving 44 million. The spread of unrest in the Middle East to some extent by the soaring food prices caused.

People concerned about climate change accurately noted, extreme weather on crop harmful, shortly before the drought in Russia and China as well as Australia, India, Pakistan and Europe have shown that this flood. Others noted that China is developing rapidly, the country's middle class, more meat, which requires more feed grains.

Play a decisive role for the next decade, a series of complex global factors may make the current problem looks very simple.

First, the production increased. From 2006/2007 to 2010/2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that rice, wheat, corn, soybeans and other grains and oilseeds production to increase from the 1.78 billion tons to 19.6 million tons, an increase of 10%. In the past four years the world population increased by less than 5%, so the rate of increase in output is more than twice the rate of population growth. How long this can continue in the future is another matter, but the per capita share of grain in the world than in the past when bad weather is hard to say pushed up food prices.

Second, China's demand is a factor, but so far mainly in soybeans and other oilseeds aspects. The increased use of oilseeds was mainly used for animal feed. The demand grew faster than the human needs of basic grains. China's soybean production is stagnant, so the increase in consumption are imported. From 2006/2007 to 2010/2011, China's imports of oilseeds increased by about 30 million tons, essentially equal to the growth in imports over the world. Global oilseed production increased by only 36 million tons, so China in this period took up most of the increase in global production. China's wheat, corn and other cereals moderate increase in net imports of about 400 million tons, while global production increased by about 1.4 million tons. Corn and other cereals to a certain extent, alternative oilseeds used as animal feed, so the pressure on oilseed prices translate into pressure on grain prices in general.

Third, the U.S. ethanol subsidies last year, more than million tons of corn to make ethanol. This is almost useless in the mitigation of global warming, but makes most of the world cereal and meat is more expensive in terms of population. Nearly one-third of U.S. corn now used to produce fuel. If the United States Senate by reducing the ethanol tax incentives to reduce the U.S. deficit, then corn prices will fall, increasing consumption in China can easily be met.

Fourth, countries have felt the impact of rising cereal prices, but the degree varied. The price of a pound of flour in 2007 was about 12 cents, now it is about 20 cents, up two-thirds. In the U.S., the prices of bread up to 2 dollars per pound, so even if wheat prices rise, the final price of bread will not be affected significantly because a large part of the retail price is the packaging and marketing costs. In poorer countries, prices are more direct. Food expenditure accounts for half or more of total expenditures. Urbanization has led to high unemployment and food prices are tricky situation, the city's problem is more serious than in rural areas, because many rural people to a certain extent, self-sufficiency.

Fifth, many countries tried to increase imports and subsidies, and even limit food exports to protect domestic consumers. Russian wheat during the drought had practiced such a move. With the export stop, reduce the supply of other countries, prompting many importers store extra food, and to promote a number of countries taking into account the unreliability of the world grain market to seek self-sufficiency.

Sixth, China's soybean imports only half of the increase driven by the consumer. From 2006/2007 to 2010/2011, China's reserves increased by 15 million tons of oilseeds. In many ways you can explain this, one of which is worried about the weak dollar and the Chinese Government has decided to reserve grain, rather than U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition to oilseed difficult to understand why when the reserves will double in price surge. This may be able to get cheap loans of the Chinese state-owned enterprises panic hoarding or speculation. No matter what explanation, much of the demand seems to come from speculative buying, and this behavior may not only happen in China. If the actual interest rates start to near normal levels, then the cost of such speculation would be higher, generally will reduce speculation.

Seventh, those who oppose the inflation, the money supply lead to inflation, the only way is through speculative channels. If low interest rates lead to inflation, which is due to speculative buying of commodities, rather than the use of commodities.

If the climate continues to extreme temperatures, drought and floods development, growing food will cost more, but also more uncertainty. Decrease of farmland due to urban development, many underground aquifers are over-pumping. Although the technology and investment help to offset these negative situations, but they are sufficient to promote agricultural growth rate of the past is unknown. Increase food aspects of the development would be wise preventive measure.